NEWS@BDO
Datum:
In Q1-2025, a total of 113 transactions in the automotive sector have been observed, which is fully in line with Q1-2024 (also 113 transactions). Compared to the record high transaction activity in Q4-2024 (139 transactions), deal count slightly decreased by 26 transactions or 18,7%.
Asian domestic deals made by far the largest contribution to Q1-2025 sector deal flow with 50 transactions. European domestic transactions contributed 31 transactions, followed by North America (15 transactions).
Main drivers of Q1-2025 M&A activity were transactions in the body & chassis, brakes, steering, exterior and interior segments while transactions in the EV segment did contribute to a lesser extent to the quarter’s deal flow activity.
In general, outbound deal flow remained muted in Q1-2025, a trend that has persisted for a while now. On the back of trade tariffs that the US government introduced at the beginning of Q2-2025 on cars, automotive parts, aluminum and steel, the sector’s regulatory environment remains very challenging. At the beginning of May 2025, a de-escalation in the global trade war gave hope for some alleviation but we expect that the automotive sector will still face a hard time going forward for various reasons.
As per May 2025, European automotive suppliers trade at an implied EV/EBITDA 25E multiple of 4.6x (median-based) which is a slight uplift of 0.3x EV/EBITDA multiple points compared to 4.3x as per BDO’s Q4-2024 valuation analysis.
North American automotive suppliers’ valuation levels remained stable. The implied EV/EBITDA 25E multiple stood at 5.0x (median-based) in May 2025 compared to 4.9x as per the Q4-2024 automotive sector update.
APAC stock-listed automotive suppliers traded at an implied EV/EBITDA 25E multiple of 4.9x compared to 4.8x in the last quarter representing a valuation inflation of 0.2x EV/EBITDA multiple points multiple points.
In line with the observed mid-term historic trading pattern, North American stock-listed automotive suppliers continue to deliver share price outperformance over their European and Asian peers. Over the last three years, the North American automotive supplier peer group experienced a total share price appreciation of 85% compared to 9% of the APAC peer group and negative 11% of European peers.
Within our European automotive supplier peer universe, Continental delivered the best share price performance (+25.0%) over the last six months (as per May 2025). Main driver of Continental’s share price performance was a solid 9M-24 result. Adjusted EBIT figures exceeded expectations due to cost savings and a new pricing structure against the headwinds of weak automotive production.
In North America, the share price of DANA performed even better (plus 81%) over the same period. The uplift was mainly due to DANA’s convincing FY24 performance. Adjusted EBITDA increased versus prior years on the back of both efficiency and cost-savings measures despite overall lower sales as well as inflation effects.
As per the ACEA, new car registrations in the EU declined slightly by 1.9% to 2.72m units in Q1-2025. Looking at European high-volume markets, the Spanish market achieved the highest Q1-2025 growth rates in terms of new car registrations with an increase of +14.1% compared to declines in France (-7.8%), Germany (-4.3%), and Italy (-1.6%).
HEV cars led the market with 35.5% share of all EU Q1-2025 car registrations, followed by petrol cars (28.7%) and BEVs (15.2%) while Diesel powered cars achieved a 9.5% share.
The total number of new BEV registrations in the EU rose by 17.1% in Q1-2025 to 158k units (compared to 134k units in Q1-2024). In Germany, the increase was even more significant with a count of 43k new BEV registrations in Q1-2025 which represents an increase of 35.5% compared to Q1-2024 (31k new BEV registrations).
In the EU, apart from BEVs, also the PHEV and HEVs segments experienced an increase in new car registrations in a year over year March 2025 perspective. HEV registrations increased by 23.9% (plus 71k) to 370k HEV units. In Germany, HEV registration numbers climbed to 75k (+11.7%) per March 2025. In France, the increase was even stronger with +41.6% to 71k HEV units
Compared to March 2024, EU new car registrations in March 2025 with petrol or diesel engine have slumped, declining by 20.7% and 25.5%, respectively. In Germany, the trend was similar with new petrol car registrations down 29.4% to only 70k units, and new diesel car registrations down 21.7% to only 38k units.
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